tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1365 at 13:14, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1365 Southwest ROC 13:14 MCO 15:54 17% 5% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 6h 00m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35AA 4806 · flown by Republic 1h 33m Boston BOS 09:08 → MCO 12:27AA 2720 6h 22m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:08 → CLT 09:05AA 1485 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → MCO 12:47AA 1576 5h 39m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 7h 22m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → PHL 07:32AA 5930 · flown by Piedmont 3h 27m Philadelphia PHL 10:59 → MCO 13:35AA 3268 7h 30m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:17 → ORD 07:18UA 2008 3h 42m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 8h 46m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → ROC 05:33 → DCA 06:59AA 5351 · flown by PSA 1h 25m Washington DCA 08:24 → MCO 11:02AA 2128 5h 29m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → ROC 10:28 → IAD 11:49UA 4476 · flown by GoJet 3h 52m Dulles IAD 15:41 → MCO 17:54UA 2861 7h 26m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ROC 17:47 → ORD 18:55UA 2059 46m Chicago ORD 19:41 → MCO 23:15UA 2294 5h 28m 49% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON