Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5904 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 07:05	PHL 08:32	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
AA 5930 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 06:05	PHL 07:32	9%	5%	0.6%	91%
AA 6126 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 10:46	PHL 12:10	11%	4%	1.4%	89%
AA 5907 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 15:13	PHL 16:42	26%	10%	5.3%	74%
AA 6108 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 19:40	PHL 21:09	31%	7%	7.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON