tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2441 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2441 Southwest RSW 08:49 BNA 09:57 5% 1% 0.9% no record
WN 1421 Southwest RSW 14:32 BNA 15:39 18% 5% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 45m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 34m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 38m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → BNA 12:06AA 1396 7h 05m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 12m Dulles IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264 7h 48m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002 5h 57m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → BNA 12:28AA 2409 4h 40m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → RSW 16:15 → CLT 18:17AA 2018 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 21:59 → BNA 22:25AA 1644 7h 10m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 50m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 5h 26m 66% 58%
AmericanDetails → RSW 18:22 → DFW 20:34AA 2736 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:28 → BNA 23:29AA 1500 6h 07m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON