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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 36m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 3h 25m Chicago ORD 14:16 → BUF 16:50UA 580 8h 10m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 5h 25m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 05m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 6h 09m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 14:00 → BUF 15:54AA 2442 7h 06m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:00 → BUF 16:11AA 1724 10h 10m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 3h 32m Chicago ORD 18:25 → BUF 20:54UA 1335 8h 26m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON