tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: F9 2715 at 14:41, 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 2715 Frontier Flight history → RSW 14:41 CLE 17:38 22% 12% 2.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 4h 47m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 3h 29m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 8h 14m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 7h 17m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339 6h 54m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350 5h 25m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 2h 52m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652 7h 45m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:05 → CLE 14:55AA 2336 8h 54m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 14:20 → CLE 15:59AA 1244 7h 11m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → RSW 16:52 → JFK 19:49B6 1530 52m New York JFK 20:41 → CLE 22:29B6 2768 5h 37m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON