Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2241 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2241 RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2018 RSW 16:15 → CLT 18:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2241 American Flight history →	RSW 08:48	CLT 10:45	5%	2%	1.9%	97%
AA 1781 American	RSW 11:01	CLT 13:01	8%	3%	2.1%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	RSW 16:15	CLT 18:17	18%	5%	2.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON