Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 16%, against 4% on a calm day. Safest: WN 760 at 13:41, 16%.

Nonstops that day


WN 760 Southwest	RSW 13:41	CMH 16:16	16%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 53m	99%	91%
United Details →	RSW 14:11 → ORD 16:17UA 2472	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	6h 13m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:02DL 2892	5h 14m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:30 → CMH 20:13DL 1545	6h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:32 → CMH 22:15DL 1501	6h 34m	97%	88%
United Details →	RSW 08:41 → ORD 10:52UA 2347	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 14:47 → CMH 17:15UA 1069	8h 34m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	93%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RSW 17:57 → PHL 20:57AA 1866	53m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	62%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON