Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1630 at 11:40, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1630 Delta	RSW 11:40	CVG 14:08	11%	5%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	4h 40m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	7h 08m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	6h 53m	98%	89%
United Details →	RSW 08:55 → EWR 11:56UA 2477	2h 07m Newark	EWR 14:03 → CVG 16:26UA 3455 · flown by Republic	7h 31m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 53m	98%	87%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:58 → CVG 14:27AA 3305	8h 26m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	6h 09m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → CVG 21:45DL 2248	6h 04m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON