Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 11:49, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2916 American Flight history →	RSW 11:49	DCA 14:39	13%	6%	2.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	6h 02m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	97%	87%
American Details →	RSW 05:54 → ORD 08:04AA 2613	54m Chicago	ORD 08:58 → DCA 12:08AA 523	6h 14m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	9h 24m	96%	85%
United Details →	RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 12m	98%	85%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:34AA 2399	7h 33m	98%	85%
United Details →	RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	8h 42m	99%	84%
United Details →	RSW 14:10 → ORD 16:16UA 2472	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	8h 44m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON