tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1378 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1378 United RSW 07:57 DEN 09:50 5% 2% 0.8% no record
UA 778 United RSW 16:06 DEN 18:31 20% 6% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 20m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 7h 57m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 3h 42m Chicago ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 9h 51m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 53m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:36DL 346 6h 01m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 3h 24m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 9h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:28DL 493 7h 40m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → RSW 05:54 → ORD 08:04AA 2613 3h 59m Chicago ORD 12:03 → DEN 13:58AA 1277 10h 04m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:15 → DEN 14:51AA 696 8h 03m 95% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 51m Detroit DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644 6h 55m 67% 60%
AmericanDetails → RSW 19:02 → ORD 21:26AA 2561 58m Chicago ORD 22:24 → DEN 00:07 +1AA 2001 7h 05m 70% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON