Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1281 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1281 American Flight history →	RSW 06:01	DFW 08:05	5%	2%	1.8%	93%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	RSW 18:22	DFW 20:34	19%	7%	3.1%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	5h 27m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 41m	97%	85%
American Details →	RSW 16:15 → CLT 18:17AA 2018	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 22:07 → DFW 23:58AA 1256	8h 43m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	5h 57m	97%	81%
American Details →	RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241	3h 22m Charlotte	CLT 14:07 → DFW 16:05AA 9781	8h 17m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → DFW 21:35DL 3161	6h 54m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:43 → DFW 19:03DL 1827	6h 47m	99%	80%
United Details →	RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054	3h 30m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → DFW 20:25UA 2116	9h 26m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494	47m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	6h 54m	71%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON