tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2001 at 12:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2001 Delta RSW 12:27 DTW 15:30 8% 4% 2.2% no record
DL 2559 Delta Flight history → RSW 17:49 DTW 20:45 22% 10% 1.3% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 11m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 7h 39m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:55 → EWR 11:56UA 2477 2h 11m Newark EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic 7h 12m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → DTW 10:19DL 643 4h 44m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → RSW 05:54 → ORD 08:04AA 2613 1h 58m Chicago ORD 10:02 → DTW 12:39AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 6h 39m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 6h 57m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232 6h 52m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:57 → PHL 20:57AA 1866 57m Philadelphia PHL 21:54 → DTW 23:39AA 5418 · flown by PSA 5h 42m 70% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON