Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2053 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2053 RSW 06:35 → EWR 09:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1792 RSW 16:28 → EWR 19:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2053 United	RSW 06:35	EWR 09:35	3%	2%	1.6%	no record
UA 2477 United Flight history →	RSW 08:55	EWR 11:56	6%	2%	1.6%	68%
UA 1926 United	RSW 11:58	EWR 14:50	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 1792 United	RSW 16:28	EWR 19:20	27%	11%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON