tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2054 United Flight history → RSW 11:59 IAD 14:30 8% 3% 1.3% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 16m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 2h 16m Chicago ORD 13:07 → IAD 16:10UA 1128 7h 30m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 02m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 38m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:19 → IAD 14:31AA 524 8h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 5h 58m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 3h 19m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 8h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 48m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 53m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 74% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON