tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2606 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2606 United RSW 06:44 IAH 08:25 5% 2% 1.2% no record
UA 1743 United RSW 14:03 IAH 15:48 16% 6% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 1h 49m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 8h 00m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:26AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327 7h 23m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:10 → ORD 16:16UA 2472 3h 46m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 9h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 39m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 6h 43m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223 6h 03m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON