Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: DL 379 at 14:23, 30%.

Nonstops that day


DL 379 Delta Flight history →	RSW 14:23	LGA 17:13	30%	8%	2.1%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	5h 06m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 57m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 43m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 02m	97%	83%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:47 → LGA 15:29AA 2922	9h 28m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 11m	99%	81%
United Details →	RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → LGA 15:25UA 786	6h 45m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON