Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 15%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4418 at 07:08, 4%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4418 Southwest	RSW 07:08	MDW 09:11	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 4872 Southwest	RSW 17:36	MDW 19:42	26%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 11m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 30m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 27m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 34m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON