Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2400 RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 2219 RSW 18:14 → MSP 20:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	RSW 14:32	MSP 17:04	14%	6%	2.3%	77%
SY 384 Sun Country	RSW 12:43	MSP 15:21	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
DL 2219 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:14	MSP 20:55	18%	7%	1.6%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON