Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2347 at 08:40, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 2347 RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2561 RSW 19:02 → ORD 21:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2347 United Flight history →	RSW 08:40	ORD 10:51	5%	3%	1.3%	94%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	RSW 05:54	ORD 08:04	6%	2%	2.3%	93%
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	13%	6%	1.3%	89%
UA 2472 United Flight history →	RSW 14:10	ORD 16:16	20%	6%	1.3%	77%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 12:23	ORD 14:34	24%	6%	2.3%	33%
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:27	ORD 18:43	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 19:02	ORD 21:25	31%	8%	2.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON