Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2365 at 12:51, 19%.

Nonstops that day


AA 2365 American Flight history →	RSW 12:51	PHL 15:54	19%	7%	2.1%	76%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	RSW 17:57	PHL 20:57	30%	9%	2.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 39m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	5h 22m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 59m	99%	88%
United Details →	RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:52UA 2430	9h 12m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	7h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	9h 24m	96%	84%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	7h 59m	98%	83%
American Details →	RSW 16:15 → CLT 18:17AA 2018	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 21:52 → PHL 23:41AA 1827	7h 26m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	50m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	5h 27m	66%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON