tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:41, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:41 → ORD 10:52UA 2347 2h 15m Chicago ORD 13:07 → PIT 15:49UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 07m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:58 → PIT 14:47DL 1353 6h 44m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:35 → PIT 16:24DL 1568 5h 36m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:28 → PIT 10:17DL 1363 4h 42m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → RSW 05:54 → ORD 08:04AA 2613 2h 16m Chicago ORD 10:20 → PIT 13:04AA 4467 · flown by Republic 7h 10m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → PIT 14:41AA 2664 8h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 01m Detroit DTW 22:46 → PIT 23:57DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor 6h 08m 93% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 16:15 → CLT 18:17AA 2018 50m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → PIT 20:41AA 2676 4h 26m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON