tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 16%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2514 at 06:08, 2%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2514 Southwest RSW 06:08 STL 07:51 2% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3393 Southwest RSW 18:11 STL 19:52 30% 7% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 6h 19m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:40 → ORD 10:51UA 2347 3h 29m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 8h 06m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 37m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → RSW 05:54 → ORD 08:04AA 2613 59m Chicago ORD 09:03 → STL 10:31AA 2818 5h 37m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:45AA 2241 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 11:58 → STL 12:54AA 3096 5h 06m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833 5h 25m 93% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON