Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3292 SAN 17:48 → AUS 23:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1144 SAN 11:31 → AUS 16:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	17%	5%	0.8%	81%
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:07	AUS 19:05	22%	6%	0.8%	85%
WN 4944 Southwest	SAN 14:58	AUS 19:44	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	SAN 08:01	AUS 12:58	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3395 Southwest	SAN 17:44	AUS 22:30	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1144 Southwest	SAN 11:31	AUS 16:17	24%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON