Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 390 SAN 08:25 → BOS 16:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 3706 SAN 15:52 → BOS 00:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 390 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:25	BOS 16:50	22%	3%	0.7%	76%
B6 220 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 13:06	BOS 21:51	22%	8%	0.9%	74%
WN 3706 Southwest	SAN 15:52	BOS 00:05	26%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702	7h 32m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	46m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 30m	78%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON