tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3404 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3404 Southwest SAN 07:11 BWI 14:58 11% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 4424 Southwest SAN 10:49 BWI 18:34 22% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:07UA 2830 1h 26m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 37m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 8h 00m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 1h 17m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 26m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:59 → IAH 13:29UA 2760 3h 40m Houston IAH 17:09 → BWI 21:23UA 592 10h 24m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:13 → ORD 16:36AA 2343 1h 37m Chicago ORD 18:13 → BWI 21:22AA 4663 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 7h 50m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 16:17 → BWI 17:55AA 3121 8h 05m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON