tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:16, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:36 → SEA 16:32DL 2533 3h 27m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 33m 95% 89%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 05m Portland PDX 10:34 → BZN 13:16AS 393 5h 26m 94% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 41m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 22m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 5h 42m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 89% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:13AS 709 2h 56m Seattle SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277 7h 31m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → SFO 12:51AS 3347 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 13:56 → BZN 17:11AS 2062 · flown by Horizon 5h 07m 74% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON