tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1651 American Flight history → SAN 06:50 CLT 14:49 8% 2% 0.7% 86%
AA 1785 American SAN 12:54 CLT 20:36 21% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820 8h 42m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 8h 21m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 4h 00m Chicago ORD 16:47 → CLT 19:58AA 3188 10h 43m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:29 → PHL 14:54AA 2093 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 16:07 → CLT 17:46AA 3012 8h 17m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031 7h 02m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 37m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:13 → ORD 16:36AA 2343 2h 11m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 8h 46m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → CLT 18:37AA 3227 9h 17m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 48m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:11DL 2132 6h 35m 74% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON