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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:37, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Columbus on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 3h 40m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 9h 48m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:13 → ORD 16:35AA 2343 3h 01m Chicago ORD 19:36 → CMH 22:10AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 8h 57m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:32 → CMH 22:16DL 1501 8h 40m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 19m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 08m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 3h 42m Chicago ORD 16:29 → CMH 18:52AA 3542 · flown by Envoy 9h 37m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 94% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON