tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 14 Alaska Flight history → SAN 12:42 DCA 21:00 33% 5% 0.7% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 49m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 9h 01m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 3h 30m Detroit DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030 9h 44m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 10h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 20m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:59 → IAH 13:29UA 2760 3h 30m Houston IAH 16:59 → DCA 21:16UA 235 10h 17m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 2h 14m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 8h 22m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30B6 190 1h 00m New York JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59B6 955 8h 08m 70% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:29 → PHL 14:54AA 2093 47m Philadelphia PHL 15:41 → DCA 16:50AA 5363 · flown by PSA 7h 21m 58% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON