Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3411 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3411 SAN 06:42 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1435 SAN 13:44 → DEN 16:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3411 Southwest	SAN 06:42	DEN 09:55	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 519 United Flight history →	SAN 18:55	DEN 22:27	10%	5%	0.6%	88%
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	11%	3%	1.2%	86%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2829 United	SAN 07:00	DEN 10:39	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 3412 Southwest	SAN 09:39	DEN 12:52	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	18%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 2793 United	SAN 11:00	DEN 14:39	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1423 Alaska	SAN 17:45	DEN 21:01	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	SAN 11:49	DEN 15:02	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1422 Alaska	SAN 08:44	DEN 11:59	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3414 Southwest	SAN 15:19	DEN 18:33	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:44	DEN 19:09	22%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:51	DEN 20:22	22%	5%	1.2%	81%
WN 1435 Southwest	SAN 13:44	DEN 16:57	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON