Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 771 SAN 13:20 → DFW 18:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	8%	3%	1.2%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	10%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	15%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SAN 15:14	DFW 20:35	16%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	18%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	19%	7%	1.2%	78%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:50	DFW 12:38	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:24	DFW 16:39	20%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1770 American	SAN 13:40	DFW 18:43	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 771 Alaska	SAN 13:20	DFW 18:12	27%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON