tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4481 at 17:37, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4481 Southwest SAN 17:37 ELP 20:26 23% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → ELP 16:05AA 1681 7h 50m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:03 → ELP 18:58AA 555 8h 08m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 8h 03m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:08 → ELP 17:03AA 2097 8h 03m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:42UA 1980 1h 16m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 49m 89% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 87% 72%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:01 → PHX 17:26AA 1951 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 18:54 → ELP 21:20AA 2875 4h 19m 82% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON