Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1637 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 1637 SAN 06:30 → EWR 14:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:49 → EWR 22:04 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1637 United	SAN 06:30	EWR 14:45	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	15%	3%	1.5%	84%
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 22:42	EWR 06:57	17%	3%	1.4%	88%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:49	EWR 22:04	37%	11%	1.1%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 19:16 → SLC 22:19DL 1252	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 44m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 34m	96%	74%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 24m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:33UA 1505	7h 48m	88%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON