Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4476 SAN 08:47 → FAT 10:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3388 SAN 14:23 → FAT 15:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4476 Southwest	SAN 08:47	FAT 10:07	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3021 SkyWest	SAN 18:24	FAT 19:53	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:53	FAT 10:22	15%	6%	0.9%	83%
AS 3388 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:23	FAT 15:52	18%	6%	0.9%	74%
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON