tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Boise, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3002 SkyWest SAN 21:00 GEG 23:58 19% 6% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:36 → SEA 16:32DL 2533 3h 25m Seattle SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 22m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 5h 57m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466 6h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 3h 44m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 8h 09m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 1h 32m Portland PDX 22:03 → GEG 23:15AS 1345 5h 17m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 34m Denver DEN 19:40 → GEG 21:05UA 778 8h 32m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250 4h 55m 90% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → GEG 20:19AA 2757 7h 59m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON