Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3279 at 09:38 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3279 SAN 09:38 → HNL 12:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 828 SAN 17:26 → HNL 20:14 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3279 Southwest	SAN 09:38	HNL 12:30	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 948 Southwest	SAN 18:24	HNL 21:16	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 815 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	HNL 12:18	33%	5%	1.3%	59%
AS 94 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:05	HNL 13:57	33%	6%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
AS 828 Alaska	SAN 17:26	HNL 20:14	34%	8%	1.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:22 → SFO 08:10UA 2830	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 21m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 03m	92%	81%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:37 → KOA 14:21AS 222	1h 54m Kailua/Kona	KOA 16:15 → HNL 17:13AS 1137	8h 36m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON