Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3423 Southwest	SAN 08:37	HOU 13:40	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3424 Southwest	SAN 12:23	HOU 17:26	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 07m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	9h 15m	99%	88%
American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → HOU 20:08AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 18m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON