Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: DL 367 at 07:29, 14%.

Safest bet that day DL 367 SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	16%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:05	JFK 22:04	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 36 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:15	JFK 22:56	27%	5%	0.8%	80%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 11:51	JFK 20:30	30%	6%	1.0%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → JFK 21:48DL 2378	8h 12m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 09:06 → JFK 17:18DL 934	8h 03m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	50m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	85%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON