Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 716 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 716 SAN 08:11 → LAS 09:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1466 SAN 17:50 → LAS 19:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 716 Southwest	SAN 08:11	LAS 09:31	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 452 Southwest	SAN 07:09	LAS 08:29	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 785 Southwest	SAN 10:30	LAS 11:50	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 430 Southwest	SAN 15:34	LAS 16:54	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4440 Southwest	SAN 19:36	LAS 20:56	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	SAN 13:19	LAS 14:39	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest	SAN 12:35	LAS 13:55	20%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 1655 Southwest	SAN 14:19	LAS 15:39	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 3426 Southwest	SAN 17:44	LAS 18:58	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:48	LAS 17:18	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 3030 SkyWest	SAN 08:01	LAS 09:30	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 3052 SkyWest	SAN 15:13	LAS 16:43	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 1466 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 17:50	LAS 19:28	27%	10%	1.9%	67%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON