Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:58, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 220 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:05	LIH 11:28	19%	3%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 47m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 52m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:09 → SEA 15:02AS 1368	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	12h 16m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 15:16 → LIH 16:12AS 1113	10h 05m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	SAN 10:58 → OGG 13:41AS 232	2h 02m Kahului	OGG 15:43 → LIH 16:30AS 1269	8h 32m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:05 → HNL 13:57AS 94	2h 27m Honolulu	HNL 16:24 → LIH 17:14AS 1123	9h 09m	95%	64%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:15 → SEA 09:09AS 709	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 25m	97%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	52m Honolulu	HNL 13:10 → LIH 14:05AS 1083	7h 58m	45%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON