tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 776 Southwest SAN 10:34 MCI 15:45 21% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3151 Southwest SAN 11:03 MCI 16:15 24% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 8h 39m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 5h 42m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:08 → ATL 18:17DL 725 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MCI 21:23DL 3023 8h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 35m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58DL 1657 9h 10m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → MCI 19:06DL 1130 9h 06m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 58m Dulles IAD 18:06 → MCI 19:55UA 1165 9h 55m 96% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON