Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3904 Southwest	SAN 09:19	MCO 16:54	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 396 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:03	MCO 18:17	26%	5%	1.1%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 07:59 → IAH 13:29UA 2760	3h 40m Houston	IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571	9h 49m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 59m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309	9h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	10h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:38 → MCO 23:09DL 1302	9h 33m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	8h 48m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	2h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:22 → MCO 17:42DL 1691	8h 27m	98%	82%
American Details →	SAN 06:29 → PHL 14:54AA 2093	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 18:01 → MCO 20:49AA 646	11h 20m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	49m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881	6h 59m	70%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON