tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3250 at 17:24, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3250 SkyWest SAN 17:24 MFR 19:49 25% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 2h 30m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 16:33 → MFR 17:54UA 1001 6h 53m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:54 → SEA 18:50AS 574 3h 50m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 8h 10m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:07UA 2830 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322 5h 44m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:50 → SEA 14:41AS 1368 3h 06m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 7h 23m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 55m Seattle SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 85% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON