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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 47m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:13 → ORD 16:36AA 2343 2h 28m Chicago ORD 19:04 → MIA 23:26AA 1159 10h 13m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367 3h 36m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 13h 08m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:02 → MIA 19:01DL 719 9h 46m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 8h 23m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 52m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540 53m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 7h 37m 87% 74%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:29 → PHL 14:54AA 2093 1h 31m Philadelphia PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 9h 58m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON