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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Missoula on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:40DL 1723 5h 25m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 22:46 → MSO 00:23 +1DL 1824 6h 22m 99% 88%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 29m Portland PDX 10:58 → MSO 13:32AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 42m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 24m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 8h 06m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:13AS 709 3h 35m Seattle SEA 12:48 → MSO 15:17AS 660 8h 01m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 14:53 → SEA 17:47AS 685 2h 42m Seattle SEA 20:29 → MSO 22:53AS 1435 7h 00m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610 7h 25m 83% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON