Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1422 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1422 SAN 07:20 → OAK 08:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3103 SAN 12:37 → OAK 14:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1422 Southwest	SAN 07:20	OAK 08:55	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3184 Southwest	SAN 08:44	OAK 10:18	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4126 Southwest	SAN 22:29	OAK 00:02	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2161 Southwest	SAN 09:47	OAK 11:21	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2274 Southwest	SAN 15:11	OAK 16:45	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3437 Southwest	SAN 18:16	OAK 19:51	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1427 Southwest	SAN 11:36	OAK 13:11	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1979 Southwest	SAN 12:47	OAK 14:21	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 420 Southwest	SAN 19:03	OAK 20:37	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3108 SkyWest	SAN 19:33	OAK 21:16	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 3104 SkyWest	SAN 16:15	OAK 17:58	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	SAN 12:37	OAK 14:20	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON