Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 518 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 518 SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 1478 SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	6%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 2065 American Flight history →	SAN 22:40	ORD 04:46	6%	2%	1.3%	85%
UA 1016 United	SAN 06:45	ORD 12:51	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 540 United	SAN 22:25	ORD 04:21	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2054 American	SAN 07:42	ORD 13:58	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2343 American Flight history →	SAN 10:13	ORD 16:36	19%	6%	1.0%	82%
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:06	ORD 20:17	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2131 American Flight history →	SAN 13:19	ORD 19:55	22%	7%	1.0%	65%
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	22%	4%	1.0%	75%
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	26%	7%	0.6%	82%
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	35%	6%	1.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON