Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 399 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AS 399 SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2431 SAN 16:47 → PDX 19:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 399 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:50	PDX 09:29	10%	2%	0.9%	94%
WN 4450 Southwest	SAN 10:47	PDX 13:27	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 576 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:04	PDX 13:43	17%	3%	0.9%	88%
AS 1402 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:03	PDX 16:36	20%	3%	0.8%	86%
AS 486 Alaska	SAN 16:17	PDX 18:37	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2431 Southwest	SAN 16:47	PDX 19:20	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON