tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2093 American Flight history → SAN 06:29 PHL 14:54 13% 2% 0.8% 96%
AA 433 American Flight history → SAN 09:21 PHL 17:45 23% 5% 0.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854 10h 23m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 3h 52m Detroit DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686 10h 10m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 9h 08m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 8h 44m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 2h 25m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 8h 39m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 24m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 10h 20m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 8h 57m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:07UA 2830 46m San Francisco SFO 08:53 → PHL 17:36UA 2824 8h 16m 55% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON