Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1212 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1212 SAN 06:29 → PHX 08:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3034 SAN 13:02 → PHX 14:27 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1212 American	SAN 06:29	PHX 08:04	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1083 Southwest	SAN 07:29	PHX 08:45	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3441 Southwest	SAN 08:34	PHX 09:50	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4453 Southwest	SAN 15:33	PHX 16:50	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3444 Southwest	SAN 20:05	PHX 21:19	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 1707 Alaska	SAN 21:00	PHX 22:18	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 428 Southwest	SAN 12:27	PHX 13:43	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3445 Southwest	SAN 11:18	PHX 12:34	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3443 Southwest	SAN 18:27	PHX 19:42	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3327 American	SAN 09:55	PHX 11:23	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3124 American	SAN 13:03	PHX 14:34	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1140 Southwest	SAN 13:46	PHX 15:02	24%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3035 SkyWest	SAN 17:32	PHX 18:57	25%	8%	2.7%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:01	PHX 17:26	25%	6%	0.8%	74%
F9 2084 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 19:01	PHX 20:34	30%	9%	1.0%	76%
OO 3033 SkyWest	SAN 09:58	PHX 11:23	33%	10%	2.5%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	SAN 13:02	PHX 14:27	34%	9%	2.6%	no record
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON